Several regions of the world, including the east coast of Australia, are characterized by the
occurrence of low-pressure systems with a range of different dynamical structures, including tropical,
extratropical, and hybrid cyclones. Future changes in the occurrence of cyclones are better understood if
storms are classified according to their dynamical structure. Therefore, we apply a classification of
cyclones according to their cold-core or warm-core structure to an ensemble of regional climate model
simulations. First, we show that historical simulations reproduce well the reanalysis results in terms of
cyclone classification. We then show that once cyclone classification is applied, projections of future
cyclone activity become more robust, including a decrease in the occurrence of both cold-core and
warm-core cyclones. Finally, we show that in a warmer climate warm-core hybrid cyclone activity could
increase close to the coast, while the associated rainfall and wind are projected to increase.
Figure 4. Composites at the time of the cyclone lowest central pressure of rainfall and 10-m wind speed fields change
between future and historical simulations for all cyclones detected in NARCliM.
This page is maintained by Jason Evans |
Last updated 23 January 2018