The climate of the Murray‐Darling basin (MDB) has been simulated using the
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was implemented using a 10 km
horizontal grid and run for 24 years from 1985 through 2008. The model simulated
climate was evaluated against gridded precipitation and temperature observations from
the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) at daily, monthly, interannual and
multiannual time scales. WRF successfully reproduced daily statistics when compared
to AWAP observations. It also improves almost all monthly and interannual statistics
relative to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Reanalysis, which supplied the lateral boundary conditions. WRF simulations were
able to capture the drought experienced over the basin in recent years, except for an
overestimation of the negative anomaly in the northernmost part of the domain. Examining
ENSO cycles showed WRF has good skill at capturing the correct spatial distribution of
precipitation anomalies associated with El Niño/La Niña events during this 24 year period.
The high‐resolution simulation developed here allows for improved characterization
of land‐atmosphere coupling within the basin, including identification of the dominant
water vapor source regions for events and seasons and provides insight into the
quantification of precipitation recycling.
Figure 4: Perkins skill score across the domain for daily
precipitation. A value of 100 represents perfect skill.
This page is maintaind by Jason Evans |
Last updated 31st January 2013