Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate.
Ji, F., M. Riley, H. Clarke, J.P. Evans, D. Argüeso and L. Fita
Chan, F., Marinova, D. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011, pp. 1652-1658. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7.
Projected changes in the future rainfall of the Sydney metropolitan region were investigated
through fine scale (2km grid) dynamical downscaling from a single global climate model (GCM) simulation
using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. Projections of rainfall (2040-
2059) were compared with a reanalysis-driven simulation for the period 1990-2009. There are projected to be
changes in rainfall throughout the region with substantial temporal and spatial variation.
The primary mechanisms for these changes were investigated using daily and monthly model outputs.
Increased autumn rainfall is primarily caused by greater frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events
during some years. The increased intensity of these rainfall events may be due to greater availability of
moisture from the tropics and the interaction between tropical and sub-tropical systems. The influence of the
local topography on rainfall patterns is also evident at this scale. However the seasonal variation of change in
rainfall is mainly determined by the outer domain and boundary conditions.
Figure 6: Rainfall in MAM season for the future 20 years (2040-2059).
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Last updated 31st January 2013