Evans, J.P., L. Fita, D. Argüeso and Y. Liu
Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J. (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2013, pp. 2765–2771. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-3-1.
NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modeling
project for the Australian area. It will provide a comprehensive dynamically downscaled climate dataset for
the CORDEX-AustralAsia region at 50km, and South-East Australia at a resolution of 10km. NARCliM data
will be used by the NSW and ACT governments to design their climate change adaptation plans.
NARCliM uses WRFv3.3 regional climate model (RCM) to perform an ensemble of simulations for the
present and the projected future climate. WRF is run in three different model configurations (different
combinations of physical parametrizations) that have been shown to perform well in the South-East Australia
and were chosen based on performance and independence. These three RCMs are simulating three different
periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2040 and 2060-2080. Four different GCMs (MIROC-medres 3.2, ECHAM5,
CGCM 3.1 and CSIRO mk3.0) from CMIP3 will be used as initial and boundary conditions for the WRF
simulations. These GCMs were chosen through a process that considered model performance, independence
and projected future changes. Thus an ENSEMBLE of 12 simulations for each period will be obtained.
Additionally to the GCM-driven simulations, 3 control run simulations driven by the NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis for the entire period of 1950-2009 are also performed in order to validate the RCMs performance
in the area. In this talk, we will present the initial evaluation results of the long control period simulations of
the project. This includes an analysis of the models ability to capture the influence of large scale oceanic
modes on the regional climate.
Figure 3: Correlation between SON precipitation and the El Niño Modoki Index. Only areas obtaining 95%
significance or higher are coloured.
This page is maintaind by Jason Evans |
Last updated 31st January 2013